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The 2010-20 projections incorporate a new BLS system that
depicts education, training, and related work experience
typically needed for occupations. In occupations in which a master’s degree is
typically needed for entry, employment is expected to grow by 21.7
percent, faster than the growth rate for any other education category. In
occupations in which apprenticeship is the typical on-the-job training,
employment is expected to grow by 22.5 percent, faster than for any
other on-the-job training category.
This news release focuses on five areas: labor force and
the macroeconomy,industry employment, occupational employment, education
and training, and replacement needs.
Labor force and the macroeconomy
-- Slower
population growth and a decreasing overall labor force participation
rate are expected to lead to slower civilian labor force growth from
2010 to 2020: 0.7 percent annually, compared with 0.8 percent for
2000-10, and 1.3 percent for 1990-2000. The projected 0.7 percent growth
rate will lead to a civilian labor force increase of 10.5 million
by 2020. (See table 1.)
-- The baby-boom generation moves entirely into the 55-years-and-older age group by 2020, increasing that age group’s share of the labor force from 19.5 percent in 2010 to 25.2 percent in 2020. The "prime-age" working group (ages 25 to 54) is projected to drop to 63.7 percent of the 2020 labor force. The 16- to 24-year-old age group is projected to account for 11.2 percent of the labor force in 2020. (See table 1.)
-- By 2020, the
number of Hispanics in the labor force is projected to grow by 7.7
million, or 34.0 percent, and their share of the labor force is expected
to increase from 14.8 percent in 2010 to 18.6 percent in
2020. The labor force shares for Asians and blacks are projected to
be 5.7 and 12.0 percent, respectively, up slightly from 4.7 and 11.6
percent in 2010. (See table 1.)
-- Gross domestic
product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.0 percent annually,
consistent with slow labor force growth, the assumption of a
full-employment economy in 2020, and labor productivity growth of 2.0 percent
annually.
Industry employment
-- Nonagriculture
wage and salary employment, which accounts for more than 9 in
10 jobs in the economy, is projected to expand to 150.2 million
by 2020, up from 130.4 million in 2010. (See table 2.)
-- The health care and social assistance sector is projected to gain the most jobs (5.6 million), followed by professional and business services (3.8 million), and construction (1.8 million). Despite rapid growth in the construction sector, employment in 2020 is not expected to reach its pre-recessionary annual average peak of 7.7 million in 2006. (See table 2.)
-- About 5.0 million new jobs--25 percent of all new jobs--are expected in the three detailed industries projected to add the most jobs: construction, retail trade, and offices of health practitioners. Seven of the 20 industries gaining the most jobs are in the health care and social assistance sector, and five are in the professional and business services sector. (See table 3.)
-- The 20
detailed industries projected to lose the largest numbers of jobs are
primarily in the manufacturing sector (11 industries) and the federal
government (3 industries). The largest job losses are projected for
the Postal Service (-182,000), federal non-defense government
(-122,000), and apparel knitting mills (-92,000). (See table 4.)
Occupational employment
-- Of the 22 major occupational groups, employment in healthcare support occupations is expected to grow most rapidly (34.5 percent), followed by personal care and services occupations (26.8 percent), and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations (25.9 percent). However, the office and administrative support occupations group, with projected slower than average growth of 10.3 percent, is expected to add the largest number of new jobs (2.3 million). (See table 5.)
-- The four detailed occupations expected to add the most employment are registered nurses (712,000), retail salespersons (707,000), home health aides (706,000), and personal care aides (607,000). All have large employment in 2010 and are expected to grow faster than the average of 14.3 percent. (See table 6.)
-- One-third of
the projected fastest growing occupations are related to
health care, reflecting expected increases in demand as the population
ages and the health care and social assistance industry grows. (See
table 7.)
-- More than one-fourth of the projected fastest growing occupations are related to construction. Employment in most of these occupations, still at low levels in 2010 because of the 2007-09 recession, will recover along with the construction industry. But employment in most construction occupations is not expected to reach pre-recession levels. (See table 7.)
-- Production
occupations and office and administrative support occupations
dominate the list of detailed occupations with the largest projected
employment declines. However, farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural
managers top the list, with a projected loss of 96,100 jobs. (See
table 8.)
Education and training
-- Occupations
that typically need some type of postsecondary education for
entry are projected to grow the fastest during the 2010-20
decade. Occupations classified as needing a master’s degree are projected
to grow by 21.7 percent, followed by doctoral or professional
degree occupations at 19.9 percent, and associate’s degree
occupations at 18.0 percent. (See table 9.)
-- In terms of typical on-the-job training, occupations that typically require apprenticeships are projected to grow the fastest (22.5 percent). (See table 9.)
-- Of the 30 detailed occupations projected to have the fastest employment growth, 17 typically need some type of postsecondary education for entry into the occupation. (See table 7.)
-- Two-thirds of
the 30 occupations projected to have the largest number of new
jobs typically require less than a postsecondary education, no
related work experience, and short- or moderate-term on- the-job
training. (See table 6.)
-- Only 3 of the
30 detailed occupations projected to have the largest
employment declines are classified as needing postsecondary education for
entry. (See table 8.)
Replacement needs
-- Over the 2010-20 decade, 54.8 million total job openings are expected. (See table 9.) While growth will lead to many openings, more than half--61.6 percent--will come from the need to replace workers who retire or otherwise permanently leave an occupation.
-- In 4 out of 5
occupations, openings due to replacement needs exceed the number due
to growth. Replacement needs are expected in every occupation,
even in those that are declining.
-- More than
two-thirds of all job openings are expected to be in occupations
that typically do not need postsecondary education for entry. (See
table 9.)
-- Eighteen of the 30 occupations with the largest number of projected total job openings are classified as typically needing less than a postsecondary education and needing short-term on-the-job training. (See table 10.)
Interpreting the projections in light of the 2007-09 recession and recovery
The BLS projections are built on the assumption of a full
employment economy in 2020. The 2007-09 recession represented a
sharp downturn in the economy--and the economy, especially the labor
market, has been slow to recover. As a result, the 2010-20 projections
reach a robust 2020 target year largely because the 2010 base year began
from a relatively low point. Rapid growth rates for some measures
reflect recovery from the recession and, with some important
exceptions, growth beyond recovery.
A note about labor shortages and surpluses in the context
of long-term economic projections
Users of these data should not assume that the difference
between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected
increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS
projections assume labor market equilibrium, that is, one in which
labor supply meets labor demand except for some degree of frictional
unemployment.
In addition, the employment and labor force measures use
different concepts. Employment is a count of jobs, and one person
may hold more than one job. Labor force is a count of people, and a
person is counted only once regardless of how many jobs he or she
holds. For a discussion of the basic projections methodology, see
"Overview of projections to 2020," Dixie Sommers and James C.
Franklin, January 2012 issue of the Monthly Labor Review.More information
The BLS projections are used by high school students and
their teachers and parents, college students, career changers,
and career development and guidance specialists. The projections are
the foundation of the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, the
nation’s most widely used career information resource. The projections
also are used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and
area projections that, together with the national projections, are widely
used by
policymakers and education and training officials to make
decisions about education and training policy, funding, and program
offerings.
In addition, other federal agencies, researchers, and
academics use the projections to understand trends in the economy and
labor market. The projections are updated every two years. More detailed information on the 2010-20 projections
appears in five articles in the January 2012 issue of the Monthly Labor
Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.
Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is available online at
www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm.Source: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecopro.nr0.htm
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